Understanding Confidence Scores in Sports Predictions

Confidence scores are the backbone of our AI prediction system. They provide you with a clear understanding of how certain our AI is about each prediction, helping you make informed betting decisions.

What Are Confidence Scores?

A confidence score is a percentage (0-100%) that indicates how certain our AI system is about a particular prediction. This score is calculated based on multiple factors including:

• Historical data

• Current form

• Head-to-head records

• Market conditions

Confidence Score Ranges

90-100%: Very High Confidence

These predictions have the strongest historical support and lowest risk. Our AI has identified clear, consistent patterns that strongly favor this outcome.

• Strong historical data support

• Clear patterns in recent form

• Favorable head-to-head records

• Minimal conflicting factors

75-89%: High Confidence

Solid predictions with good supporting evidence. These represent good value opportunities with manageable risk.

• Good historical patterns

• Recent form supports prediction

• Some minor conflicting factors

• Generally reliable outcomes

60-74%: Medium Confidence

Moderate confidence predictions that may offer good value but come with higher risk. These require more careful consideration.

• Mixed historical evidence

• Some conflicting factors

• Potential for higher returns

• Requires proper bankroll management

Below 60%: Lower Confidence

Higher risk predictions that may offer high rewards but should be approached with caution.

• Limited historical support

• Multiple conflicting factors

• Higher potential returns

• Should be small stakes only

How Confidence Scores Are Calculated

Our AI system considers multiple factors when calculating confidence scores:

Historical Data Analysis

• Team performance over the last 5 years

• Head-to-head records

• Performance in similar situations

• Seasonal patterns and trends

Current Form Assessment

• Recent match results

• Goal scoring and conceding patterns

• Performance against similar opponents

• Home/away form differences

External Factors

• Injury reports and team news

• Weather conditions

• Motivation factors (titles, relegation, etc.)

• Market odds movement

Using Confidence Scores Effectively

For Beginners

• Start with 75%+ confidence predictions

• Use smaller stakes on lower confidence bets

• Focus on understanding the factors behind each score

• Track your results to learn patterns

For Experienced Bettors

• Use confidence scores to adjust bet sizes

• Combine with your own analysis

• Look for value in lower confidence predictions

• Use accumulators with high-confidence selections

Confidence Scores vs. Odds

It's important to understand the relationship between confidence scores and betting odds:

• High Confidence + Low Odds: Safe but low returns

• High Confidence + High Odds: Best value opportunities

• Low Confidence + High Odds: High risk, high reward

• Low Confidence + Low Odds: Generally avoid

Common Misconceptions

Don't fall for these common mistakes:

• 100% confidence doesn’t mean guaranteed win: Even the best predictions can lose

• Low confidence doesn’t mean guaranteed loss: Upsets happen in sports

• Confidence scores aren’t static: They can change as new information becomes available

• Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results: Always use proper bankroll management

Building Your Strategy

Use confidence scores to build a personalized betting strategy:

• Set confidence thresholds: Decide your minimum confidence level

• Adjust bet sizes: Larger bets for higher confidence

• Track performance: Monitor how different confidence levels perform

• Refine your approach: Adjust based on results and experience